HOCR Results Thoughts

2026 Head of the Charles.

Whitman Eights and TBCRacing Fours (Sound familiar?)

Is this a deja vu post from the Occoquan Chase? Is any of this real? Is time simply an illusion? 

THE YOUTH EIGHTS 

Results largely held steady on the eights side of the house racing this weekend. Walt Whitman continued to be the fastest eights in the region. In the Women's Youth 8+, Whitman had a program-best finish at 10th, finishing ahead of Stotesbury and Mid-Atlantic rivals Montclair and Mount Saint Joseph. This was a big swing from last year when the Whitman Women got clipped by the Mount 2v. 

The Whitman Men were again the top local boat, but by less time than the model would have anticipated. They also had their best finish (16th) since starting a fall program 5 years ago. Gonzaga and DC National both trailed by 17 seconds (Gonzaga's official margin was 22 seconds after a 5-second penalty). That's a 7.9 second improvement for Gonzaga over their 25.9-second gap at the Chase, after adjusting for the shorter course. 

Jackson-Reed closed the gap in both the Women's and Men's 8+. The Women went from 46 seconds behind Whitman at the Chase to 15 seconds behind on the Charles, and the Men went from 54 seconds back to 42. Looks like they have gained some speed recently and the Tigers should be a team to watch! 

From RegattaCentral sleuthing, Whitman appears to be opting to train through next weekend rather than racing the Head of the Schuylkill (HOSR), so we'll see if they can maintain their local reign at the Head of the Occoquan (HOTO) in 2 weeks!  

YOUTH AND U17 FOURS

TBC Racing, the Maroon and Blues, once again held strong in the fours. Their Women's U17 4+ finished 3rd, the only youth sweep medal of the region (Coastal Virginia also medaled in sculling; see below). Their Men's 4+, racing as Water Street, had a dominant local performance in the Men's Youth 4+, finishing a strong 12th, nearly 48 seconds ahead of the next local crew. Curious to see if this sets them up for a strong four at Mid-Atlantics or if they are going to transition back into the eights.

 

Prince William Crew and TBC both outperformed their Chase results. Adjusted for the shorter course, Prince William's Men's 4+ was about 45 seconds faster than its Chase time, the biggest over performance of the weekend, and TBC's was about 20 seconds faster.

 

The St. John's College HS Women's 4+ had the biggest over performance among the girls' fours, finishing 40 seconds quicker than the model would expect. Is this an over performance, or a model error from racing even line ups earlier in the year? 

 

OTHER EVENTS OF NOTE

• Coastal Virginia took 3rd in the Women's Youth 1x, a medal for the region in sculling.
• Annapolis Junior Rowing finished 8th in the Men's U17 4+.
• PBC Men's 2x in 12th place. Best finish of the PBC Juniors this year. 
• PBC Men's 4x+ and Women's 1x both finished 13th, and the PBC Women's 2x was 17th.
• Rivanna's two Men's Youth 2x finished 17th and 19th, separated by only 8.5 seconds.
• Bishop Ireton had a tough last place finish in the Men's Youth 4x+ despite sculling being a new focus of the program. HOCR is hard and hopefully the athletes feel like they learned something! 
• Local Unity Boat Club won the Inclusion 4+  

 

HOCR Preview #2: DC Area Entries

Local Crews to Watch!

(Full List Below)

Crews to Watch (Listed by Start Time/Order) 

In race order. All Sunday, Oct 18. Times are tentative.

Potomac BC, Men's Youth Single (7:45AM, Bow 1)
Peter Madigan is following in his brother's footsteps. Last year his older brother finished 2nd in this event. This year Peter starts at Bow 1, and starting first at the Charles is a serious accomplishment on its own. The Madigan family business is the single. He's here to keep it running.

Potomac BC, Women's Youth Single (8:02AM, Bow 14)
Marley Neff of Yorktown has been a powerful force in the single, with strong results for both PBC and Yorktown. This should be a good race to watch.

DC National, Women's Youth Eight (9:05AM, Bow 24)
DC National won Youth Nationals in the four last year. Nobody is quite sure yet whether they're putting their chips on the eight or the four this fall, because they've kept their cards close to the vest. Picking the Charles as your first race of the fall is a bold choice. We'll see how it plays.

Whitman, Women's Youth Eight (9:05AM, Bow 26)
Locally, the Whitman girls have stayed ahead of the crowd all fall. Last year they finished 28th on the Charles. Is this the year they crack the top 20?

Bishop Ireton, Men's Youth Coxed Quad (10:57AM, Bow 43)
Bishop Ireton has been leading the push to add sculling to the WMIRA spring championship. So far nobody else has signed on, so they've mostly been racing themselves. Boston is a chance to show some sculling dominance and prove they're serious.

Whitman, Men's Youth Eight (11:22AM, Bow 33)
The Whitman boys have been on a local tear this fall. Montclair, St. Joe's Prep and the Northeast clubs are the real test. Will the Vikings rattle?

Resilient, Men's Youth Eight (11:22AM, Bow 69)
Resilient drew Bow 69. Resilient has also been posting memes all fall. Some jokes write themselves, and we're going to let this one.

St. John's College HS, Men's Youth Eight (11:22AM, Bow 55)
This is the first year St. John's has really raced fours. Now they're bringing an eight to the Charles. It's a real step up for this group, and we're pumped to see how it goes.

TBCRacing (d/b/a Water Street Rowing), Men's Youth Four (12:13PM, Bow 76)
TBCRacing's boys four had a dominant result at the Occoquan Chase. With 100 boys in the club, they should be able to find four who can row together. We'll find out Sunday. Unclear why this club is racing under 2 different names. 

Event	Time	Team	Bow
Men's Youth Singles	7:45 AM	Potomac BC	1
Men's Youth Singles	7:45 AM	Capital RC	31
Women's Youth Singles	8:02 AM	Potomac BC (Neff)	14
Women's Youth Singles	8:02 AM	Potomac BC (Martinez-Reza)	40
Women's U17 Fours	8:20 AM	TBCRacing	3
Women's U17 Fours	8:20 AM	TBCRacing (aka Water St.)	14
Women's U17 Fours	8:20 AM	Resilient	33
Women's Youth Coxed Quads	8:40 AM	Old Dominion	39
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	TBCRacing A	14
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	DC National	24
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Whitman A	26
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Jackson-Reed A	35
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Resilient	37
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	B-CC	41
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	TBCRacing B	43
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Old Dominion	48
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Walter Johnson	59
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Whitman B	81
Women's Youth Eights	9:05 AM	Jackson-Reed B	83
Women's Youth Doubles	9:38 AM	Potomac BC	21
Women's Youth Doubles	9:38 AM	Capital RC	33
Women's Youth Fours	10:02 AM	DC National	28
Women's Youth Fours	10:02 AM	St. John's College HS	56
Women's Youth Fours	10:02 AM	Resilient	63
Women's Youth Fours	10:02 AM	Prince William	78
Men's U17 Fours	10:38 AM	Annapolis Junior	20
Men's U17 Fours	10:38 AM	DeMatha	28
Men's Youth Coxed Quads	10:57 AM	Potomac BC	21
Men's Youth Coxed Quads	10:57 AM	Bishop Ireton	43
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Whitman A	33
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Jackson-Reed A	35
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	DC National	38
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Gonzaga	40
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	St. John's College HS	55
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Old Dominion	66
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Resilient	69
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Jackson-Reed B	71
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	B-CC	74
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Whitman B	76
Men's Youth Eights	11:22 AM	Walter Johnson	79
Men's Youth Doubles	11:52 AM	Potomac BC	5
Men's Youth Doubles	11:52 AM	Capital RC	18
Men's Youth Doubles	11:52 AM	Prince William	37
Men's Youth Fours	12:13 PM	B-CC	53
Men's Youth Fours	12:13 PM	TBCRacing (aka Water St.)	76
Men's Youth Fours	12:13 PM	Prince William	83

HOCR Preview #1: Rankings Webs Coming Together

All Roads Lead to Cambridge 

We have results from 18 regattas loaded into the rankings. For the girls eights, we can use 5 of them. For the boys, 8. That's a great win percentage for the New York Jets, but less good for us right now. 

The problem is geography. The model only compares crews that have raced someone in common. Right now the fall season is two webs that never touch. Based on the authors of this blog living within 50 miles of Baltimore, there is a certain capital area focus as a starting point. 

There's ours: SHOP, SWHOP, the Occoquan Challenge and the Occoquan Chase. And there's the Philly to Worcester web: Navy Day, the Christina, the Passaic, the Housatonic, the Riverfront and the Quinsig. Nobody in one has raced anybody in the other. So we can't tell you if Jackson-Reed is faster than CRI. Not yet.

The authors, editors, and data scientists of this site have been waiting on Boston all fall.

Two Webs That Don't Touch

The boys web reaches a little further than the girls. Maverick raced SHOP and the James. Loudoun raced the James and the Ohio. Cincinnati Jr raced the Ohio and Secret City. Three crews, one chain, and suddenly Tennessee is in our rankings.

The girls chain stops at the James. Loudoun's girls skipped the Ohio (sad!), so the Ohio and Secret City float off on their own.

Up north, the other web is already stitched together tight. Connecticut crews raced Worcester. New Jersey crews raced Philly. It just doesn't reach us. 

Then there are the loners: Head of the Rock, the New Hampshire Championships, American Lake, Benderson Chase and First Coast. Loaded, and connected to nobody.

The Charles Ties It All Together

Then everybody goes to Boston. Going by the entry list, 81 girls eights and 82 boys eights race the Charles. Every web plugs in. All 19 regattas count, and the rankings grow to 167 girls crews and 202 boys crews.

The map says the rest.

Give Us Something to Rank

For the first time this fall, a DC crew will be measured against Boston, Philly and Connecticut, not just the local yokels. A good day in Cambridge lifts everyone you beat back home. A bad day doesn't.

Rankings update once HOCR results post at juniorrowingrankings.netlify.app. Our local preview, with who to watch, is up next.

Cambridge is where the webs meet. Race hard, watch out for Eliot Bridge, and give us something to rank.

Occoquan Chase 26 Recap

Thanks to GMU Crew Club for hosting a great regatta. On time in a downpour, many races can't manage that in the best of conditions. 

FULL UPDATE RANKINGS 

More out of region teams have been added. Results from other regattas are preloaded, waiting for overlapping competition at HOCR, HOSR, or Hooch.  

 

EIGHTS 

Big day for the Vikings at their hideout at Oxford Boathouse today. Whitman Rowing took the Occoquan Chase by storm, reinforcing their #1 regional ranking with the results today. Both the Girls and Boys Varsity Eights won today. Both of those eights would have placed 2nd overall in the collegiate race as well (Behind UVa Men and Georgetown Women). Boys with a commanding lead of 26 seconds over league rival Gonzaga & girls with a 7 second lead over TBCRacing. Both races a true David & Goliath situation where Goliath found themselves slain. 

ODBC Boys had the biggest move of the day. Coming in ranked 11th and finishing 5th is a good improvement for them. 

WJ over B-CC in the Boys 1v8 by less than 1 second is pretty spicy as well. Excited to see this crosstown Bethesda fight shake out. 

Resilient's performance at the Challenge did not seem to truly pan out today. Was it all just practicing the turn?  

FOURS

TBCRacing seems to be establishing themselves as a fours program. Girls had big depth taking 1-4 in the Upper Varsity Four (2v,3v, and 4v within 20 seconds) and the Boys seem to have a singular lightning in a bottle four. Boys results did not pan out into the eights, girls were close but not matching the dominance in the fours. 

Jackson-Reed seems like they should be able to put up stiff competition in the fours should they chose to race these boats again. I guess we'll see at HOSR or HOTO!  

WRAP UP AND STATS 

Will anyone locally be able to catch the Vikings? DC National still seems to be a dark horse right now. They are coming off a REALLY STRONG spring 2026 season (winning Youth Nationals in the Girls 4+ and 5th in the Boys 4+) but have yet to race anyone this fall. Traditionally they have been able to lay down some speed and we're excited for them to join the fray. 

See you next week for the Charles!

Boys Eights: Top 5

Place	Crew	Time	Behind
1	Whitman 1V8	15:50.4	–
2	Gonzaga 1V8	16:16.3	+25.9
3	Jackson-Reed 1V8	16:44.7	+54.3
4	Resilient 1V8	16:56.8	+1:06.4
5	Old Dominion 1V8	17:10.5	+1:20.1

Girls Eights: Top 5

Place	Crew	Time	Behind
1	Whitman 1V8	18:04.7	–
2	TBCRacing 1V8	18:11.6	+6.9
3	Jackson-Reed 1V8	18:50.7	+46.0
4	Resilient 1V8	18:54.9	+50.2
5	TBCRacing 2V8	18:58.8	+54.1

Biggest Movers in the Rankings

Crew	Event	Last week	Now	Change
Old Dominion 1V8	Boys 8+	16	7	▲9
TBCRacing 1V8	Boys 8+	3	10	▼7
Walter Johnson 1V4	Girls 4+	4	11	▼7
TBCRacing 1V4	Boys 4+	7	1	▲6
Jackson-Reed 2V8	Girls 8+	6	11	▼5

Rankings Expanded

Several more races went into the rankings today. Loudoun raced the Head of the Ohio last weekend and the Head of the James today. The James had plenty of local overlap, so the Ohio boys now line up against ours.

Cincinnati Juniors pulled the same move, racing the Ohio and then the Secret City Head Race in Oak Ridge. The web keeps growing. The girls side isn’t linked up yet. It needs one more crew to make the trip.

Eagle-eyed readers will notice the rankings page now has a Mid-Atlantic view and an All teams view. The more teams travel, the bigger it gets. So travel.

On to the Chase, Charles, and Schuylkill!  

A note on rankings

 

The Model is Only as Good as the Data

That data is often bad. The algorithm used was found written on the wall of the men's restroom on the second floor of the Electric Palm. It was found after several ivy league adjacent math knowers were debating Ordinary Least Squares over a pitcher of Blue Moon and an order of the Bang Bang Shrimp. 

The author(s) of this site hurriedly copied the information down on the one ply toilet paper provided by the establishment. 

We take race results from official sources and scrimmage results from unofficial sources. Fall racing is additionally challenging with fewer races, more boats in each category, and no consistent way that teams organize crews. Some may do even line ups for certain races, others may race certain JV boats as their top. Who's to know if a random four is the best four kids on a team, or the kids who didn't make the 3rd eight?

If you think your ranking is right, race hard and prove it. 

If you think the ranking is wrong, race hard and prove it. 

Challenge Done! On to the Chase!

Two weekends, three head races, and the picture keeps shifting. Sunday's Occoquan Challenge handed us one of the biggest shake-ups of the fall, and we get to do it all again on the same water next Sunday at the Occoquan Chase.

Resilient swept both Upper Junior 8+ events, Old Dominion's boys took a huge step, and a couple of crews that looked locked into place after SWHOP and SHOP suddenly don't. Let's dig in.

Occoquan Challenge: Resilient runs the table

Boys Upper Junior 8+

Resilient's top boat won going away, 15.6 seconds clear of Old Dominion over 4,500m. The real headline is right behind them, though: Old Dominion's 1V finished second and put more than 15 seconds on Prince William. That's not the Old Dominion we saw at SWHOP.

Place	Crew	Time	Behind leader
1	Resilient 1V	14:55.6	—
2	Old Dominion 1V	15:11.2	+15.6
3	Prince William 1V	15:26.8	+31.2
4	One Arlington 1V	15:37.7	+42.1
5	Old Dominion 2V	16:30.1	+1:34.5
6	Resilient 2V	16:48.9	+1:53.3
7	One Arlington 2V	17:53.1	+2:57.5

Don't sleep on the second boats either. Old Dominion's 2V beat Resilient's 2V by almost 19 seconds, which says something about ODBC's depth.

Girls Upper Junior 8+

Resilient's girls made their first appearance in our results this fall and made it count, winning by a massive 34.9 seconds. Old Dominion's 1V crossed second on the water but took a 60-second collision penalty, which officially drops them to fourth. For the rankings, I'm using their raw time, since the penalty says more about a traffic jam than boat speed.

Crew	Raw time	Official
Resilient 1V	16:32.5	1st
Old Dominion 1V	17:07.4	4th (18:07.4 w/ penalty)
Prince William 1V	17:39.4	2nd
Old Dominion 2V	17:55.3	3rd
One Arlington 1V	18:16.4	5th

That penalty is a bit of a gift to Old Dominion's 2V, who end up officially ahead of their own top boat. Somewhere in that boathouse there's a fun conversation happening this week.

How it stacks up against SWHOP and SHOP

Different courses and conditions mean raw times don't line up across weekends, so the fun is in the common opponents. Prince William raced all three boys events, and Old Dominion raced all three on the girls side, which makes them our measuring sticks.

Boys: Prince William is the swing vote

At SWHOP, Resilient beat Prince William by just 3.6 seconds and Old Dominion trailed Prince William by over a minute. One week later, Resilient's margin over PW ballooned to 31.2 seconds and Old Dominion flipped a 64-second deficit into a 15.6-second lead.

One Arlington tells the same story. They were 76.5 seconds behind Prince William at SHOP and only 10.9 behind at the Challenge.

So either Prince William had an off Sunday, or Resilient, Old Dominion and One Arlington all took big steps at once. Probably some of both. Either way, Old Dominion is the biggest mover in the rankings this week, and Resilient's case for the top tier got a lot stronger.

At the top, nothing changed because the top crews weren't there. Whitman's 44.7-second win over Jackson-Reed at SHOP is still the strongest mark of the fall, and Jackson-Reed's 6.7-second edge over TBCRacing at SWHOP still has them firmly in the mix. Jackson-Reed beat Prince William by exactly 27.1 seconds at both SWHOP and SHOP, which is about as consistent as rowing gets.

Girls: Resilient crashes the party

Old Dominion's girls have been remarkably steady. They beat Prince William by 41.9 seconds at SHOP and by 32.0 on raw time at the Challenge.

That consistency is exactly why Resilient's win matters. Running the chain through Old Dominion, Resilient projects right alongside TBCRacing near the top of the field, behind only Whitman, who won SHOP by 35.3 seconds over Jackson-Reed. One race is one race, but that's a loud debut.

One Arlington's girls also closed the gap on Old Dominion considerably, from 115.7 seconds at SHOP to 69.0 at the Challenge.

The updated numbers are all on the Fall 2026 Head Race Rankings page.

Chase preview: Boys Upper Junior 8+

Eighteen boats, and for the first time this fall nearly every contender is in the same race. AJR, B-CC, DeMatha, Gonzaga, Jackson-Reed, Old Dominion, Prince William, Resilient, St. John's, TBCRacing, Whitman and Walter Johnson are all entered, and half of them are bringing two boats.

Whitman vs. TBCRacing. This is the one. Whitman owns the best result of the fall from SHOP, and TBCRacing was right on Jackson-Reed's heels at SWHOP. They raced on back-to-back days and never saw each other. Sunday, the transitive math finally gets tested on the water.

Resilient gets its shot at the big dogs. Resilient just ran away with the Challenge, but its toughest opponents so far have been Jackson-Reed and TBCRacing at SWHOP. Lining up against Whitman for the first time is the real measuring stick for whether this crew belongs in the top tier.

Can Old Dominion back it up? ODBC's boys went from the back of the SWHOP field to second at the Challenge. Now they get Jackson-Reed, TBCRacing and Whitman in the same race. If Sunday was real, this is where they prove it.

Gonzaga and DeMatha finally show their cards. Gonzaga's only result is a September scrimmage win over Walter Johnson, and DeMatha hasn't raced in our results at all. Both bring two boats. These are the wild cards that could scramble the middle of the rankings.

The Jackson-Reed rematch. Jackson-Reed has been the model of consistency, landing in the same spot against Prince William two races running. They get Whitman again, plus TBCRacing and Resilient, so we'll find out exactly where the ceiling sits.

Walter Johnson vs. Gonzaga, the sequel. WJ took a solid third at SHOP after losing the scrimmage to Gonzaga. A full head race is a different animal, and WJ will want this one back.

Chase preview: Girls Upper Junior 8+

Fourteen boats from AJR, B-CC, Jackson-Reed, Old Dominion, Prince William, Resilient, TBCRacing, Whitman and Walter Johnson. Five of those clubs are bringing two boats, so depth is going to matter.

The three-way showdown nobody has seen. Whitman, TBCRacing and Resilient each have a case for the top spot, and none of them has raced either of the other two. Whitman won SHOP, TBCRacing won SWHOP, and Resilient just won the Challenge. Sunday settles it, at least until the next one.

Old Dominion, the measuring stick. ODBC is the only crew in this field that has already raced Whitman, TBCRacing and Resilient. That makes them the perfect barometer. If ODBC's gap to each of the big three holds steady, the rankings were right. If it doesn't, expect some reshuffling.

Jackson-Reed's chance to climb. Jackson-Reed was a clear second at SHOP but hasn't seen TBCRacing or Resilient. Two strong boats in the field give them a real shot at breaking into the top tier.

TBCRacing's B boat is the sleeper. At SWHOP, TBCR's second boat finished practically even with Old Dominion's first boat. With two entries each from TBCRacing, Whitman, Jackson-Reed, B-CC and Old Dominion, the second-boat battles could be just as fun as the race up front.

AJR's first look at the DC crews. Annapolis Junior Rowing has only raced at SWHOP so far. Sunday is their first crack at Whitman, Jackson-Reed, B-CC and Resilient.

See you on the Occoquan

The Occoquan Chase runs Sunday, October 11 out of Sandy Run, hosted by George Mason Crew Club. The girls' Upper Junior 8+ goes off around 9:40 AM with 14 entries, and the boys follow at about 1:10 PM with 18. Times are tentative, so check the draw once it's posted.

Rankings will update as soon as results are in. Bring a jacket, bring a cowbell, and we'll see you on the water.